Makkah and the New Geometry of Regional Security

The defence pact that has been signed in Makkah by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye is significant in the strategic framework of the Middle East. Not only is this an indication of the participating states' commitments from three close neighbors, but it also represents a chance for them to start building a security pact more firmly on regional assets and mutual strategic interests.

The accord comes at a time when traditional security structures are being challenged and a clear signal is being given by the three states that they plan to enhance their capacity to collectively respond to threats to their sovereignty and territorial security.

This is a significant development for Pakistan.

Pakistan is frequently seen in terms of its geopolitical relationship with India, particularly from a South Asian perspective. Its strategic importance goes much beyond this, however. Its strategic location links South Asia and the Arabian Sea (and the Gulf and wider Middle East), and its military strength outweighs its economic size.

The Makkah agreement points to these two aspects – geographical and strategic capability.

This is no first-time cooperation on the security front between Pakistan and the other countries. It has long had military ties with Saudi Arabia and defence ties have grown substantially during the past few years with Türkiye. The new framework is thus not an all new partnership, but is based on existing relationships.

Türkiye is an additional important aspect. Ankara has experience in NATO, advanced defence industry and large military force which complements Pakistan's military strength. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has a lot of money, strategic insight in the Gulf and a lot of regional power.

Pakistan's contribution is important, but no less important is its large and experienced military, strategic deterrence and defence cooperation history.

The triangle formed is then strategically complementary.

In the international-relations view, the most critical idea behind the accord is the issue of deterrence. Collective defence arrangements can affect the calculations of potential aggressors, by making it more costly for them to attack. The credibility of coordinated response can itself help to contribute to stability even if the action itself is never taken.

This is where the participation of Pakistan is even more significant.

The partnership has a dimension that can't be ignored, Pakistan's strategic deterrent and military prowess. Islamabad, meanwhile, has strong motives for maintaining strategic restraint. Pakistan has a border with Iran and has strong economic, religious and diplomatic links with the rest of the Middle East. It is therefore not interested in another theatre of conflict but in improving the security of the nation through its increasing defence cooperation without sacrificing the diplomatic manoeuvrability.

The deal can also help to position Pakistan as a more significant middle power with a broader regional influence.

States are trying to not be too reliant on another state in the new and fractured international system. Islamabad's diplomacy portfolio is wider with its relationship with China, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, and with other key international players. The Makkah mechanism may be useful in this regard by enabling Pakistan to have more say in the deliberations on security in the Gulf and the region.

Saudi Arabia has a reliable military ally in Pakistan, and it has a history of strong institutional ties. The deal can further enhance Türkiye's growing strategic foothold in the Middle East and bolster military ties with two key countries. It is an opportunity for Pakistan to convert a military presence into more diplomatic influence for the country.

But the agreement shouldn't be overstated. So much so that, as soon as it was mentioned, it was immediately said that this was not an “Islamic NATO.” The actual implementation will be the true gauge of success. If the pact were to become a lasting security institution, that would depend on joint exercises, intelligence coordination, defence production, strategic consultations and the practical mechanisms to react to threats.

That process could prove more important than the signing ceremony itself.

The pact, if carried out properly, could help to shift the regional security landscape in a progressive manner. It might show that Muslim-majority states can establish mechanisms for collective security without compromising individual foreign-policy interests.

The opportunity for Pakistan is significant. This is the time for the nation to tell itself that it is a responsible, capable, strategic state that can defend its interests and can seek peace through diplomacy.

The Makkah accord is thus not just another defence alliance, it also appears as a sign of Pakistan's growing strategic engagement.

This will only become important if followed by something else. However, one thing is certain: Pakistan is being seen not only as a player in the regional geopolitics but as a country that can mold the regional geopolitics.